Italy came from behind to beat France 3–1 at the Giuseppe Meazza in Milan on Thursday, 12 November 2026, and moved to the top of its UEFA Nations League group with one match remaining. Michael Olise punished a Gianluigi Donnarumma error in the tenth minute. Francesco Pio Esposito equalised in the 26th, Davide Frattesi put Italy ahead in the 63rd and Pio Esposito converted a penalty in the 75th. The score left Italy and France level on ten points, with Belgium one behind after winning in Türkiye. Italy lead on their head-to-head record against France, having drawn the reverse fixture in October.

The path from the opening error to the third goal explains more than the margin. Italy survived chances that struck the woodwork, missed its first penalty and found two decisive contributions from substitutes. France created opportunities after establishing a lead and again while the match was level. The difference in the second half came from what Italy did in the minutes after its own missed penalty. The home side changed two players, scored from a cross and then won another spot kick. That sequence turned a match with several plausible directions into a result that changed the final-day calculation for three teams.

Olise turned pressure into the opening goal

France started with Olise, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola in the front three. Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé were absent through injury, according to The Guardian. The visitors had an early route to goal despite those absences. After Italy played a goal kick short to Donnarumma, the goalkeeper sent his pass directly to Olise. The forward moved through the immediate challenge and finished low at the near post. France needed only a few touches after recovering the ball to exploit Italy’s positioning, while Donnarumma had little time to regain a useful angle after giving it away.

That goal illustrates the cost of an error in the first phase of possession. Italy had set up for its own next pass when the ball changed sides near its goal. The players in a position to receive were immediately required to defend. Olise still had to get past the first challenge and finish, and the speed of that decision mattered. The goal established a lead France could use to vary its approach. It could press the next uncertain pass or let Italy advance and look for space behind the players committed forward.

Roberto Mancini started both Esposito brothers, with Pio in the middle and Sebastiano and Nicolò Cambiaghi completing the front line on the team sheet. Italy levelled when Cambiaghi got to the byline and sent the ball back into the six-yard area. Pio reached it ahead of the defence and put it past Mike Maignan. It was a different kind of scoring chance from the one Olise had taken. Italy had advanced far enough to make France defend facing its own goal, then used a short delivery across the goalkeeper’s area. The forward’s positioning shortened the distance the ball needed to travel and made a controlled touch valuable.

Sebastiano then tested Maignan as Italy threatened a second goal shortly after the equaliser. At the other end Barcola cut inside and hit the post. Those chances were a reminder that a goal could change the score without ending either team’s ability to reach dangerous positions. Italy had solved one sequence through Cambiaghi’s run, but it still had to deal with France’s wide players moving into shooting positions. The interval arrived at 1–1, with the two teams having found scoring opportunities through different parts of their attacks.

Italy’s substitutions changed the next attack

The first stretch after half-time provided further evidence that France remained dangerous. Rayan Cherki struck from the edge of the area and Donnarumma diverted the attempt onto the post, The Guardian reported. Italy then threatened at the other end, with Maignan saving from Cambiaghi at close range. The winger also won a penalty after a challenge by Malo Gusto. Sebastiano took it around the hour and sent it wide. At that point Italy had generated a close-range chance and a penalty in a relatively short spell, yet the match was still level and France had already come close to taking back the lead.

Sky Sport recorded the introduction of Federico Dimarco and Antonio Vergara in the 62nd minute for Sebastiano and Cambiaghi. Within a minute Dimarco supplied the cross that Frattesi finished first time. The change mattered through an immediate action, as the substitute reached a crossing position and a midfielder arrived to meet the delivery. Frattesi’s run gave the defence a different player to track from the central forward who had equalised. It also showed that Italy could continue threatening from wide areas after replacing the winger who had supplied its first goal and won its first penalty.

Vergara then won Italy’s second penalty when Dayot Upamecano brought him down. Pio took this one and scored in the 75th minute. The two penalties followed different attacking sequences and drew different takers. The first came while the teams were level, and the second gave Italy an opportunity to put two goals between them. From there, a single French goal could narrow the margin without restoring parity. That change in the score had immediate value for a defence that had already needed the frame of the goal twice and still had the closing minutes to manage.

Pio’s two goals also illustrate the range of the centre-forward’s work in this particular match. For the first, he needed to read a teammate’s delivery while sharing a small area with defenders and the goalkeeper. For the second, the ball was stationary and he had the time allowed by a penalty to prepare his finish. Between those goals, Frattesi arrived from midfield to score. Italy’s comeback therefore involved a central striker finishing two distinct chances and a midfielder exploiting the space created by an attack from the flank. That distribution of opportunities helps explain how the team continued to threaten once the initial front line changed.

How the Milan result changed Group A1

Before Thursday, France had ten points, Italy seven, Belgium six and Türkiye none, according to the Italian federation’s match-window briefing. Belgium’s 2–1 win earlier in the day put it on nine points. Italy’s victory then drew it level with France on ten. UEFA’s standings rules place results between tied teams before overall goal difference. Italy took four points from its two meetings with France, beginning with the 1–1 draw at Saint-Denis on 2 October. With no other team level on ten points after Thursday’s fixtures, that record explains why Italy sit first.

UEFA schedules Belgium against Italy in Brussels and France against Türkiye on Sunday, 15 November. The top two advance to the quarter-finals. Italy will finish on at least eleven points and qualify if they avoid defeat, because a draw leaves Belgium on ten. A Belgian victory takes Belgium to twelve and leaves Italy on ten. In that case France can move above Italy by earning a point or more against Türkiye. If France also lose, Italy stay above them on the head-to-head record and can still finish second. Those consequences are why Thursday’s recovery mattered even though Italy still have a match to play.

The calculation for the group lead is separate from qualification. An Italian win in Brussels takes Mancini’s side to thirteen, a figure France can also reach by winning. In that two-team tie the head-to-head record favours Italy. An Italian draw guarantees a quarter-final place, while the France result determines whether eleven points are enough for first place. Belgium’s route is direct: a home win takes them through. A Belgian draw paired with a French defeat leaves France and Belgium level on ten, and France won both of their group meetings. This makes the score in Brussels relevant to both teams in Brussels and to the one playing in France.

Italy’s position also reflects what it did after losing 2–0 at home to Belgium in September. It beat Türkiye 4–1 away and 3–1 at home, with the draw in France between those two wins. That sequence took Italy from an opening defeat to seven points before this window. It explains why a point in Brussels would now be enough to advance even though Italy lost the first meeting with Belgium. It would put the teams on different points totals, leaving no need to consult their head-to-head results. France, meanwhile, built its ten points before Milan by beating Belgium twice and Türkiye once, and drawing with Italy. Those earlier results still matter when the possible ties on Sunday are worked through.

The Italian federation’s squad announcement offers another point of context for the changes in Milan. It listed Dimarco among the defenders and Vergara among the forwards. They made their marks in different ways, one by delivering from wide and the other by drawing a foul inside the area. Their contributions can be evaluated without assuming either player will start on Sunday. For Mancini, their impact is evidence of options available from the bench when the next game presents a different problem.

A rivalry already familiar with reversals

Sky Sport’s match notes put the result in the context of the teams’ previous Nations League meetings. Italy won 3–1 in France in September 2024. France replied with a 3–1 victory in Italy that November, before this season’s draw in Saint-Denis. The Guardian reported that Thursday was Italy’s first home victory over France since 1962 and Zidane’s first defeat as France coach. The recent sequence also shows why the venue alone is a weak guide to these results. Each side has demonstrated that it can win away in this competition, and Italy needed a response to falling behind even in front of its own crowd.

The immediate questions now move to Sunday. Italy can examine how the changes at 1–1 produced a goal so quickly and whether a similar late arrival from midfield is available against Belgium. France can revisit the chances created either side of the interval and how it defended Italy’s next two entries into the penalty area. The confirmed result in Milan has made the group’s last fixtures decisive. It has also left a clear sequence to review: France gained the first advantage, Italy recovered through a cutback and then made the decisive gains after a missed penalty and two substitutions.

Sources

Archive photograph of San Siro, Milan, dated 15 January 2020. D7ckon via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Resized without changing the original 16:9 ratio.

Talal Osman